Market Update for the Week Ahead: 07/05/2021
IS IT TUESDAY @ 930AM YET???...
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What's Happening Heading into Monday?
S&P 500: Everyone is quite convinced that there is an imminent correction coming. Gamma Exposure is still positive and the underlying flows are too. There may be a pullback, sure, but unless the flows change and gamma inverts, then it could be more of the same here in Q3.
Volatility: There was quite a bit of VIX options activity that picked up on Thursday and Friday. But this is not abnormal for the long weekend as some traders buy protection. If it persists early in the week then it is something to be watching. Otherwise, this could fade off by Wednesday.
TLT (Bonds): Bonds held the momentum threshold (stayed above 50) and the flows are quite positive. GEX is neutral so if this does get above VWAP it could pick up steam. Definitely something to watch for this week upcoming.
What about the Options Market last week?
Last 7 Days when we are looking at Total Premium? TSLA back in charge again. Elon to the moon! The notable changes from last week were NVDA, SPCE, and BABA. Watch these names for action this week.
Last 7 Days when we are looking at Total Volume? Total volume has fully shifted from the meme stocks driving action in early June to the FAANGs and Semiconductors driving action in early July. The big cap growth tech stocks in the drivers seat has been associated with 'melt-up' action the last couple of years. Will it repeat again?
How the Options Market finished the week last week? Quite a neutral close into the long weekend with the large cap tech names in control. SPX is bearish but that has been the case the last 2-3 weeks with relatively no impact to the markets. ETFs are neutral.
The most Unusual Call Options Activity at the close on Friday? The name that sticks out from last Friday was WBA. Lot of action there. That and SPXU (which is the leveraged SPX derivative) for some calls going into this Friday...
The most Unusual Put Activity at the close on Friday? Quite a bit of short-intermediate term put action in SPX, SPXW, SPY, and QQQ...which is fairly unusual.
Highest Energy Sweeps at the close on Friday? Mostly bearish with some VERY BEARISH activity in TSLA and SPY.
Highest Energy Blocks at the close on Friday? SPX is neutral with TSLA showing large bullish block action.
How were the Degenerate Prop Traders positioning with Leverage at the close on Friday? This crew is still buying calls (short term too) for the 3x leveraged plays in Russell 2000, Financials, and S&P. This is 'melt-up' behavior as well. This crew is greedy both ways...and they will flip on a dime. Not seeing anything here.
What is in store for the Week Ahead?
Fresh new quarter so the first 2 weeks positioning will be key. Looks so far like everyone is more concerned with taking that summer vacation(s) that they didn't get to take last year than they are with selling the market.
IF we do get some selling action in early July, the key will be if/how quickly it gets bought or not. If it gets bought quickly, then expect to see 'melt-up' action the rest of the summer and into the fall. Especially if the large cap names take over the market like they have in the past.
IF volatility starts to pick up (which a main driver could be inflation) then we will share more daily insights inside the app via the pulse to help you navigate it.
MAKE IT A GREAT TRADING WEEK!!
Top Twitter social shares from vigtec users that caught our attention this last week:
(click on any image to link directly to the Twitter profiles)
@narmacnetworth caught the $LVS flows and has great insights on a regular basis.
@deltagammaqueen throwing up the Paper Hands.
@toro looking for max pain in the Q's.
@locustfunds picking up the VIX position changes heading into the long weekend.
@abovetreeline7 has been steadily feeding off the flows the last couple weeks.
Software Release Updates & News
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New Software Features "In the Works" (Coming Very Soon)
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- Android App
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- Real-time News, Analyst Ratings, and Economic Calendars
- Cross-Asset Class Power Signal Alerts
- and MORE!